Bitcoin's recent 30% price surge has captivated traders, revealing a hidden rhythm that could be key to unlocking its market dynamics. This surge, from early February lows to over $80,000, isn't a uniform climb. Instead, it's a story of specific trading windows and sessions that have driven gains. Here's a deep dive into the data, with a focus on the APAC and U.S. sessions, and why they matter.
The APAC and U.S. Sessions: The Powerhouses
The data from Velo paints a clear picture: APAC and U.S. trading hours have been the driving force behind the 31% price rise since February 6th. APAC has delivered a 13% return, while the U.S. has contributed 11.5%. In contrast, Europe has lagged with just a 6.5% return.
This isn't a permanent state of affairs. The U.S. session, in particular, experienced a dramatic shift in early April. After months of flat to negative returns, it suddenly flipped decisively positive, mirroring the momentum of APAC. This highlights the dynamic nature of Bitcoin's price discovery, where liquidity and momentum can shift rapidly.
Midnight UTC: The Golden Hour
Within these dominant sessions, specific hours stand out. The midnight UTC candle, spanning 00:00 to 01:00, has emerged as the best hour for trading. Over the past three months, it's delivered an average return of 0.10%. This is particularly intriguing because it bridges the late U.S. trading hours and the early APAC session, introducing fresh liquidity into the market.
The second strongest hour is 15:00 UTC, deep in the European session, while 06:00 UTC emerges as the worst hour. These findings underscore the importance of timing within these dominant sessions.
Monday: The Bullish Day
On a day-of-week basis, Monday emerges as the clear winner. Over the past three months, it's averaged a bullish return of approximately 1.5%. Wednesday follows at around 0.65%, while Friday is mildly positive at 0.3%. Thursday, unfortunately, is the worst day, averaging around negative 0.55%. This data suggests that Monday might be the optimal day for placing bullish bets.
Broader Implications and Future Considerations
This analysis raises important questions about market timing and risk management. While it highlights the strength of APAC and U.S. sessions, it also emphasizes the importance of specific hours and days. Traders might consider incorporating these insights into their strategies, potentially enhancing their ability to capitalize on price movements.
Looking ahead, the interplay between global risk assets, oil prices, and Bitcoin's price action warrants further exploration. The recent reports of progress toward a U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding, for instance, have sparked a rally in global risk assets and a slump in oil prices. How these external factors influence Bitcoin's price trajectory remains to be seen, but it's a fascinating development to monitor.
